Track Analysis For Hurricanes:
Bertha '96, Edouard '96, Fran '96,
Hortense '96, Bonnie '98, and Georges '98
*Numbers is red indicated the best
model track error reduction*
Hurricane Bertha
The data below shows that the Wind model runs
for Hurricane Bertha were better than the Control forecast in all time
periods.
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The data below shows that the Wind model runs were as good or better than the control in all but the 72 hour forecast period.
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Ctrl = Model runs without GOES winds
Wind = Experimental model runs
with GOES winds
Filled hurricane symbol = observed
Open hurricane symbol = model prediction
Comparisons for
Hurricanes Bertha (Fig 2a) and Edouard (Fig 2b)
In the figures below for Hurricane Bertha and Hurricane Edouard notice
the spread of the model predicted tracks in both th CTRL (left) and Wind
(right) model runs. The wind tracks are much closer to the actual
recurvature track than are the control tracks.
In the table below notice how after a bad initializtion, the Wind model
overtakes the CTRL model for least track error.
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The data for Hurricane Hortense below shows that the Wind model outperforms
the Ctrl model at all forecast times.
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Ctrl = Model runs without GOES winds
Wind = Experimental model runs
with GOES winds
Filled hurricane symbol = observed
Open hurricane symbol = model prediction
Comparisons for Hurricanes Fran (Fig 2c) and Hortense (Fig 2d)
The figures below show the actual track and model
track forecasts for Hurricanes Fran and Hortense.
The table below gives model track errors for Hurricane Bonnie.
In this instance one can see that the CTRL model outperformed the Wind
model.
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Track error data for Hurricane Georges. The Wind forecasts outperform
the Ctrl forecasts at all forecast times.
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Ctrl = Model runs without GOES winds
Wind = Experimental model runs
with GOES winds
Filled hurricane symbol = observed
Open hurricane symbol = model prediction
Comparisons of Hurricanes Bonnie (Fig 6a) and Georges (Fig 6c)
The below figures show the CTRL and Wind model
forecasts for Hurricanes Bonnie and Georges.
